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The book itself is based on the work of real-life super forecasters. The author, Philip E. Tetlock, is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and has spent his career studying superforecasting and decision making. His work, along with that of his colleagues, forms the basis of the strategies discussed in the book. However, the book does not provide specific examples of other individuals who have successfully applied these methods.
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For the first answer, set a confident interval – a range you are 90% sure contains the right answer. Levitin guessed that Chicago has around 2.5 million people because it is smaller than Los Angeles but large enough to house over 1.5 million residents. Next, Levitin supposed that a piano might need tuning once per year. Since pianos are too expensive for most families, Levitin guessed that 1/100 homes in Chicago own a piano. That number is doubled when you factor in schools, concert halls, etc. that possess more than one. 2.5 million residents x 2/100 (2%) = 50,000 pianos in Chicago. Then, Levitin guessed that it takes around two hours to tune a piano. Assuming that a piano tuner works 40 hours a week plus two weeks' vacation and spends about 20% of their time driving from job to job, the average piano tuner might work 1,600 hours per year.
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Did you know it's possible to make accurate predictions about the future without psychic powers? Given the right practice and strategies to explore, y...
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