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Superforecasting, as explained by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, is the science and art of making highly accurate predictions about the future. It's not about having psychic powers, but about using specific strategies and practices. Superforecasters are individuals who are able to predict future events with a higher degree of accuracy than others. They do this by constantly updating their beliefs based on new information, breaking down complex problems into smaller, more manageable parts, and using a variety of information sources to inform their predictions.
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Life is full of mundane predictions, too. You see clouds on the horizon and grab an umbrella. Scientific laws like phases of the moon can predict the weather with enough accuracy to plan agriculture. But, it's much harder to forecast when you should fill up your gas tank this week because the pipeline might get attacked by hackers and drives the prices up.
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Did you know it's possible to make accurate predictions about the future without psychic powers? Given the right practice and strategies to explore, y...
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