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Superforecasting strategies can be applied in real-world scenarios in various ways. First, one can use the outside view, which refers to using statistics as a base rate. For instance, in a crime investigation, the FBI's statistics on homicide victims can be used as a base rate to predict the likelihood of a victim knowing their killer. Secondly, the inside view can be used, which involves examining facts specific to the case at hand. This could involve assessing the ability, means, and motive of potential suspects and adjusting the chance percentile based on each suspect. Lastly, these two views can be merged to create a synthesized prediction. It's important not to get stuck on initial gut feelings, but also not to ignore them. The key is to weigh all options and adjust predictions as new information comes to light.
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First, check the outside view: Refer to statistics as a base rate. The FBI says that 28.3% of homicide victims are killed by someone they know, so there is a 28.3% chance the victim knew their killer. Likewise, there is a 9% chance it was a stranger. Next, check the inside view: Examine facts specific to this case. Who had the ability, means, and motive for killing this person? Adjust your chance percentile up and down based on each suspect. Start with the most obvious and move your way outward. (That's why they always look at the spouse or significant other first.) If the victim had a recent fight with their significant other, the likelihood that this person killed them goes up. If that significant other had a verifiable alibi, the likelihood goes down. Note: Don't get stuck on your initial gut feelings, but don't ignore them, either. It's easy to latch on to a prediction and find information to support it, rather than weigh all options. Now, merge the two views to create a synthesiz...
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Did you know it's possible to make accurate predictions about the future without psychic powers? Given the right practice and strategies to explore, y...
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