Real-life super forecasters are individuals who have demonstrated exceptional ability in predicting future events with high accuracy. Some examples include Nate Silver, who accurately predicted the outcomes of the 2008 and 2012 US presidential elections, and Philip Tetlock, a political science professor who conducted a 20-year study on political judgment and found that certain individuals consistently outperformed others in their predictions. Other examples can be found in various fields such as finance, meteorology, and sports analytics.

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The book "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction" explains the process of merging the outside and inside views in forecasting as a two-step process. First, it suggests referring to statistics as a base rate, which is the outside view. For example, if the FBI says that 28.3% of homicide victims are killed by someone they know, that's the base rate. Then, it recommends examining facts specific to the case, which is the inside view. This could involve looking at who had the ability, means, and motive for a particular action. The final step is to merge these two views to create a synthesized prediction. This process involves adjusting the chance percentile up and down based on each specific factor.

1. Use both outside and inside views: Entrepreneurs and managers can use the outside view by referring to industry statistics and trends as a base rate for their decisions. The inside view can be used by examining specific facts and details about their own business or situation.

2. Avoid confirmation bias: It's important not to get stuck on initial gut feelings or predictions and find information to support it, rather weigh all options. This can help in making unbiased decisions.

3. Merge the two views: After examining both the outside and inside views, they should be merged to create a synthesized prediction or decision. This can help in making more accurate and informed decisions.

A startup can use the concept of super forecasting for growth by applying it to their business strategy. Super forecasting involves making accurate predictions based on a combination of data analysis and intuition. Startups can use this to anticipate market trends, customer behavior, and the impact of their business decisions.

Firstly, they can use the outside view, referring to industry statistics and trends as a base rate. This can help them understand the market landscape and their position in it.

Secondly, they can use the inside view, examining specific facts about their own business. This can involve analyzing their own data, understanding their unique selling points, and considering their specific circumstances.

By merging these two views, startups can make more informed decisions, anticipate challenges, and seize opportunities, thereby driving growth.

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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Did you know it's possible to make accurate predictions about the future without psychic powers? Giv...

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