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The key takeaways from the SpectraWatt case for entrepreneurs or managers in the cleantech startup space are:
1. Understand the industry: It's crucial to have a deep understanding of the industry you're entering. SpectraWatt's CEO wrongly compared the solar industry to the microprocessor industry in the 1970s, ignoring the fact that the solar industry had seen slow and linear efficiency improvements since the 1950s.
2. Timing is key: SpectraWatt's timing was off. It's important to enter the market at the right time, considering the current state and potential future of the industry.
3. Be realistic about technological advancements: Don't assume that your technology will follow the same trajectory as other technologies. The first silicon solar cell had been discovered in the mid-1950s and had seen slow and linear efficiency improvements, unlike the exponential improvements seen in the microprocessor industry.
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SpectraWatt was another cleantech startup involved in the silicon solar cell space. SpectraWatt's CEO was convinced that the field was on the brink of taking off and compared the solar industry at present time to the "microprocessor industry in the late 1970s." In the 1970s, microprocessor technology was indeed beginning to boom. Over the coming decade, the technology would become exponentially more efficient. SpectraWatt's CEO was kidding himself if he believed that solar was in the same realm. While the first microprocessor in 1970 was followed by exponential improvements to it over the coming decade, the first silicon solar cell had been discovered by Bell Labs in the mid 1950's, and since then had seen "slow" and "linear" efficiency improvements. There was no reason to believe that this would pick up in the 2000s. SpectraWatt's timing was off.
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