Download and customize hundreds of business templates for free
Superforecasting, as explained in the book, is the ability to make highly accurate predictions about the future without any psychic powers. It involves a systematic approach of examining both the outside view (statistics and base rates) and the inside view (specific facts and details of the case). The super forecaster starts with the most obvious and moves outward, adjusting the chance percentile up and down based on each suspect or factor. The key is not to get stuck on initial gut feelings but to weigh all options. The two views are then merged to create a synthesized prediction.
Question was asked on:
First, check the outside view: Refer to statistics as a base rate. The FBI says that 28.3% of homicide victims are killed by someone they know, so there is a 28.3% chance the victim knew their killer. Likewise, there is a 9% chance it was a stranger. Next, check the inside view: Examine facts specific to this case. Who had the ability, means, and motive for killing this person? Adjust your chance percentile up and down based on each suspect. Start with the most obvious and move your way outward. (That's why they always look at the spouse or significant other first.) If the victim had a recent fight with their significant other, the likelihood that this person killed them goes up. If that significant other had a verifiable alibi, the likelihood goes down. Note: Don't get stuck on your initial gut feelings, but don't ignore them, either. It's easy to latch on to a prediction and find information to support it, rather than weigh all options. Now, merge the two views to create a synthesiz...
Asked on the following book summary:
Did you know it's possible to make accurate predictions about the future without psychic powers? Given the right practice and strategies to explore, y...
Download and customize hundreds of business templates for free
Dive into competitiveness data and take into account the dynamics of your venture’s financial, technological and market performance with our PEST Analysis framework deck. Examine political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal factors that might influence your business and never be caught off guard.
How to respond to the current economic shifts of tariffs and geopolitical changes? Use this Macro Environment Analysis deck to examine the frameworks that help organizations remain cognizant of external factors, be prepared for challenges, and harness emerging opportunities.
Calculate and document every action to gain a competitive advantage and react confidently to any type of situation. Use our Scenario Planning presentation to gain insights into schedules, budgets and forecasts, key growth factors and potential threats of upcoming events.
Set expectations and be prepared for different outcomes at all times. Our Risk Management presentation allows you to outline ways to monitor and control unpredictable events. Use it to minimize risks and maximize opportunities.