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In super forecasting, breaking down difficult questions can be achieved through a few strategies. First, it's important to decompose the question into smaller, manageable parts. This allows you to focus on each part individually and reduces the complexity of the problem. Second, use the outside view, which involves looking at the problem as an instance of a broader category of similar problems. This can help you identify patterns and trends that can inform your forecast. Third, adjust your forecast in light of new information or evidence. This is known as Bayesian updating. Finally, always be open to changing your mind when the evidence supports it.
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In 2010, a poor Tunisian fruit vendor was robbed by corrupt police officers ̶ sadly, a common occurrence at the time. Later that day, he set himself on fire outside the town office. Protests erupted. The dictator of Tunisia, President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali fled the country. Still, the civil unrest continued throughout the Arab world and resulted in a number of rebellions and civil wars. Who could have predicted that one man's self-emollition would cause the "Arab Spring?
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Did you know it's possible to make accurate predictions about the future without psychic powers? Given the right practice and strategies to explore, y...
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