In super forecasting, one can distinguish between known and unknown components of a problem by unpacking the question into components. Then, identify which parts you are familiar with and which ones you are not. This process involves putting the problem into a comparative perspective that downplays the situation's uniqueness. You should also consider factors that emphasize a situation's uniqueness and synchronize your findings to make as precise a judgement as possible. Super forecasters adjust their views in light of new information as often as necessary.
Did you know it's possible to make accurate predictions about the future without psychic powers? Giv...
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