A super forecaster handles new information by adjusting their views as often as necessary. They treat their beliefs as hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded. They unpack the question into components, distinguishing between what they know and what they don't. They then put the problem into a comparative perspective that downplays the situation's uniqueness, looking at factors that play up a situation's uniqueness and synchronizing their findings to make as precise a judgement as they can.
Did you know it's possible to make accurate predictions about the future without psychic powers? Giv...
View summary