A super forecaster handles the factors that play up a situation's uniqueness by unpacking the question into components, distinguishing which parts they know and which ones they don't. They then put the problem into a comparative perspective that downplays the situation's uniqueness. They look at factors that play up a situation's uniqueness and synchronize their findings to make as precise a judgement as they can. They adjust their views in light of new information as often as necessary.
Did you know it's possible to make accurate predictions about the future without psychic powers? Giv...
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