What case studies demonstrate the effectiveness of Shell's Scenario Planning?

Shell's Scenario Planning has been instrumental in helping the company navigate through various uncertainties. One notable case is their anticipation of the 1973 oil crisis. Shell's Scenario Planning team had considered a situation where Middle Eastern countries would limit oil supplies, which eventually happened. This foresight allowed Shell to respond more effectively than its competitors. Another example is their planning for the transition to renewable energy. By considering various scenarios, Shell has been able to invest in renewable energy sources ahead of many competitors.

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Today, Shell has a whole dedicated Scenarios team with expertise in a wide range of fields including economics, politics, energy analysis, climate policy, socio-cultural change and competitive intelligence. "The team's work helps explore possible versions of the future by identifying drivers, uncertainties, enablers and constraints, and unearthing potential issues and their implications," according to the company's website.

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