In super forecasting, unpacking a question into components involves breaking down the question into smaller, manageable parts. This process allows you to distinguish between the parts you know and the ones you don't. After identifying these components, you then put the problem into a comparative perspective that downplays the situation's uniqueness. You examine factors that highlight the situation's uniqueness and synchronize your findings to make as precise a judgement as you can. This process is iterative and requires constant adjustment of views in light of new information.
Did you know it's possible to make accurate predictions about the future without psychic powers? Giv...
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