A business can build resilience to withstand the changes brought about by an inflection point by investing in understanding the potential changes and preparing for them. This can be done by making small investments to explore opportunities during the dismissal stage, deepening investments to generate multiple future options during the emergence stage, and taking advantage of growth opportunities during the maturity stage. It's also important to continuously monitor the market and adjust strategies accordingly.

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Seeing Around Corners: How to Spot Inflection Points in Business Before They Happen

How can you foresee new growth opportunities and take advantage of the next inflection point? Distilled from decades of consulting expertise on innova...

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Hype: After some early promise, there is a sudden buzz about how a paradigm shift is imminent. Believers invest heavily, hoping for massive growth. It inevitably ends up in disaster. Dismissal: At this stage, few of the initial entrants who survived would have begun to find viable business models and customer needs. This is the time to make small investments to explore opportunities. Emergence: At this stage, it becomes clear to industry watchers how the inflection may change things. This is the time to deepen investments to generate multiple future options. Maturity: The inflection has happened, and its implications are quite clear. The organizations that are not prepared by now face decline. This is the stage to take advantage of growth opportunities.

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Some examples of businesses that failed to anticipate an inflection point and faced decline include Blockbuster, Kodak, and Nokia. Blockbuster failed to anticipate the shift to online streaming services and declined as a result. Kodak, once a leader in the photography industry, failed to anticipate the digital photography revolution and faced a significant decline. Nokia, once a dominant player in the mobile phone industry, failed to anticipate the rise of smartphones and declined as a result.

A business can ensure it is prepared for the implications of an inflection point by closely monitoring industry trends and making strategic investments at different stages. During the hype stage, it's important to avoid getting caught up in the buzz and making rash investments. Instead, small exploratory investments should be made during the dismissal stage when viable business models begin to emerge. As the inflection point becomes more apparent during the emergence stage, deeper investments should be made to generate future options. Finally, during the maturity stage, the business should be prepared to take advantage of growth opportunities.

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