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Scenario running can help a business prepare for future threats by allowing it to anticipate potential challenges and devise strategies to mitigate them. It involves creating hypothetical situations that could impact the business and analyzing how the business would respond to them. This process can help identify vulnerabilities and areas for improvement, enabling the business to strengthen its resilience and adaptability. It also allows the business to be proactive rather than reactive, which can lead to better outcomes in the face of threats.
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Horizon scanning Identify the top ten economic, technological and social undercurrents that could create the next rogue wave and impact your business. These could include trends like changing demographics in the West, the rise of Asia and the impact of emerging technologies like 5G and IoT. For each of them, list the high impact changes in politics, markets and consumer behavior they could cause. Identify implications for your organization After you have listed the significant undercurrents relevant to your business, identify the risks and opportunities they could create. Risk can be modeled using the FOES Framework: Financial Risk, Operational Risk, External Risk and Systemic Risk. Since your junior staff is closest to ground reality, train them to keep a lookout for the right issues and install organizational mechanisms to ensure warnings are heeded. Identify response window and build an indicators dashboard Your response window is the period between the earliest time the changes be...
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How do you prepare your business for black swan events like pandemics or financial crises? Rogue Waves by Jonathan Brill explores how to prepare for a...
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