Question
To use a formula, you first need to understand what it is designed to do and the variables it requires. In the context of the Copernican Principle mentioned in the book, the formula is used to predict the lifespan of an event or object.
The principle assumes that your observation of an event is not special in time, meaning you're likely observing it at a random point in its duration.
To use this formula, you need to know the current age of the event or object. You then assume that this point is halfway through its total lifespan. So, if the Berlin Wall had been standing for 20 years when Gott visited, he would predict it would stand for another 20 years.
Remember, this is a probabilistic prediction and not a certainty. It's based on the assumption that your observation is not special, which may not always be the case.
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Astrophysicist J. Richard Gott III developed the Copernican Principle in 1969 – a method to predict how long something will last. When he visited the Berlin Wall, he wondered how long the wall would last. Since he didn't know how long the wall's life span would be, Gott could assume that, on average, his arrival would be around halfway through. Therefore, he guessed that the wall would stand for another eight years. In this case, the Berlin Wall stood for 20 years, not eight.
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