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A traditional manufacturing company can learn from SpectraWatt's experience by understanding the importance of timing and market readiness for a product. It's crucial to assess whether the industry is on the brink of a significant change or if it's likely to continue with slow and linear improvements. Overestimating the pace of change can lead to financial losses and business failure. Furthermore, it's essential to realistically evaluate the potential for exponential improvements in the technology or product being developed.
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SpectraWatt was another cleantech startup involved in the silicon solar cell space. SpectraWatt's CEO was convinced that the field was on the brink of taking off and compared the solar industry at present time to the "microprocessor industry in the late 1970s." In the 1970s, microprocessor technology was indeed beginning to boom. Over the coming decade, the technology would become exponentially more efficient. SpectraWatt's CEO was kidding himself if he believed that solar was in the same realm. While the first microprocessor in 1970 was followed by exponential improvements to it over the coming decade, the first silicon solar cell had been discovered by Bell Labs in the mid 1950's, and since then had seen "slow" and "linear" efficiency improvements. There was no reason to believe that this would pick up in the 2000s. SpectraWatt's timing was off.
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Learn from tech superstar Peter Thiel (PayPal, Palantir) and his protégé Blake Masters why the only opportunities really worth pursuing are those that...
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