What are the key qualities of a super forecaster?

The key qualities of a super forecaster include the ability to balance different factors and consider contrasting views. They are open to new information that might alter their initial predictions and are not rigid in their thinking. They are also detail-oriented, taking into account all possible factors that could influence the outcome.

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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Did you know it's possible to make accurate predictions about the future without psychic powers? Given the right practice and strategies to explore, y...

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If you were to sum up forecasting in one word, it might be "balance." This doesn't mean that your predictions should always be somewhere in the middle but take everything into consideration even if it contrasts with your current view. A closer inspection might introduce a factor you hadn't thought of that alters the course of your probabilities.

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Some recommended books for further learning about the balance approach in forecasting include 'Forecasting: Principles and Practice' by Rob J Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos, 'Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die' by Eric Siegel, and 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction' by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. Online resources such as Coursera and edX also offer courses on forecasting and predictive analytics.

The balance approach in forecasting can be used to predict trends in the stock market by considering all factors, even those that may contradict current views. This approach allows for a more comprehensive analysis, potentially revealing factors that could significantly alter market trends.

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