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In the context of super forecasting, a brilliant puzzle solver may be at a disadvantage compared to a less intelligent person who has a strong capacity for self-critical thinking. This is because super forecasting is not just about the ability to solve complex problems, but also about how one uses this ability. Super forecasters see their beliefs as hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded. They are extremely open-minded and adjust their views as often as necessary in light of new information.
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Super forecasting is not about the ability to crunch numbers, but what you do with it that matters most. A brilliant puzzle solver will be at a disadvantage relative to a less intelligent person who possesses a great capacity for self-critical thinking. For super forecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded. Do not be open-minded, be super open-minded. However, when you make a prediction, be as precise as possible. If the prediction is too vague, you can run into the "Forer Effect," where people assume its meaning and apply it to themselves. Unpack the question into components, then distinguish which parts you know and which ones you don't. Then, put the problem into a comparative perspective that downplays the situation's uniqueness. Look at factors that play up a situation's uniqueness and synchronize your findings to make as precise a judgement as you can. Super forecasters adjust their views in light of new information as often as necessary to draw...
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Did you know it's possible to make accurate predictions about the future without psychic powers? Given the right practice and strategies to explore, y...
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