The Win-Stay, Lose-Shift algorithm was developed by mathematician Herbert Robins in 1952.

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Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions by Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths

Can computer science teach us the secrets of life? Perhaps not, but they can shed light on how certain everyday processes work and how to exploit them...

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The "37% rule" refers to a series of steps, or algorithms, that someone must follow to make the best decision within a set amount of time. Someone allots 37% of their time to research before they make a decision, then commits to the very next "best choice" they find. The "explore/exploit" trade-off refers to the need to balance the tried and tested with the new and risky. The payoff of this algorithm depends entirely on how much time you have to make decisions. People are more likely to visit their favorite restaurant on their last night in town than risk something new. Developed in 1952 by mathematician Herbert Robins, the "Win-Stay, Lose-Shift" algorithm uses slot machines as a metaphor. Choose a machine at random and play it until you lose. Then switch to another machine; this method was proven to be more reliable than chance. A psychology study found that given choices, people often "over explore" rather than exploit a win. Given 15 opportunities to choose which slot machine would...

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The concept of over exploration can be mitigated in decision making by implementing strategies such as the 37% rule, the explore/exploit trade-off, and the Win-Stay, Lose-Shift algorithm. The 37% rule suggests that one should spend 37% of their time researching before making a decision, then commit to the next best choice they find. The explore/exploit trade-off emphasizes the need to balance the tried and tested with the new and risky. The Win-Stay, Lose-Shift algorithm, developed by mathematician Herbert Robins, suggests that one should stick with a decision until it proves unsuccessful, at which point they should switch to a different approach.

The effectiveness of the 37% rule can be influenced by several factors. Firstly, the amount of time you have to make decisions can greatly impact the effectiveness of this rule. If you have a limited amount of time, you may not be able to fully utilize the 37% of the time for research. Secondly, the nature of the decision can also affect the rule's effectiveness. If the decision involves high risks, you may need to spend more than 37% of your time on research. Lastly, personal factors such as your ability to make quick decisions and your risk tolerance can also influence the effectiveness of the 37% rule.

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