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Sinopse

Como tomador de decisões, você deve reagir rapidamente e com confiança em qualquer tipo de situação, o que significa que você sempre deve ter um plano, ou melhor, vários deles. Esta Planejamento de Cenários apresentação inclui slides personalizáveis para ajudá-lo a obter insights sobre cronogramas, orçamentos e previsões, fatores-chave de crescimento e potenciais ameaças de eventos futuros. Com esta apresentação, você pode calcular e documentar cada ação para obter uma vantagem competitiva.

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Questions and answers
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While I don't have a specific case study at hand, I can tell you that scenario planning has proven effective in many industries. For instance, in the oil industry, companies like Shell use scenario planning to prepare for different possibilities in the global energy market. They develop multiple scenarios based on various factors such as political changes, market trends, and technological advancements. This allows them to respond quickly and effectively to any changes. Similarly, in the healthcare industry, scenario planning can help hospitals and health systems prepare for potential crises like pandemics or natural disasters.

Common challenges in applying Scenario Planning include: difficulty in predicting future uncertainties, lack of commitment from top management, and the complexity of creating multiple plausible scenarios. These can be overcome by: improving forecasting techniques, securing commitment from top management, and simplifying the scenario creation process by focusing on key variables.

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Destaques do slide

Use este slide para criar um mapa de planejamento de cenários. Este mapa pode consistir em diferentes partes com o propósito de ilustrar e equilibrar diferentes dimensões estratégicas de uma maneira compreensível.

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Utilize a Matriz de Planejamento de Cenários para desenvolver uma estratégia de resposta ágil. Inclua o máximo de detalhes possível para avaliar a probabilidade de sucesso ou fracasso de várias alternativas estratégicas.

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A ideia por trás do "modelo de funil" é que quanto mais olhamos do ponto de vista de hoje para o futuro, maior é o número de desenvolvimentos prováveis. Use este slide para fazer previsões para muitos cenários futuros possíveis, em vez de apenas um.

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Questions and answers
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Scenario planning in business forecasting and budgeting has several practical applications. It helps businesses to anticipate potential future events and prepare for them. This can include developing strategies for different potential economic conditions, market trends, or changes in consumer behavior. Scenario planning can also be used to evaluate the potential success or failure of various strategic alternatives. This can help businesses to make more informed decisions about where to allocate resources and how to prioritize different initiatives. Additionally, scenario planning can be used to create more accurate and realistic budgets and forecasts by taking into account a wider range of potential outcomes.

Scenario planning can be used to make predictions for many possible future scenarios by creating a scenario planning map. This map can consist of different parts with the purpose to illustrate and balance different strategic dimensions in a relatable way. A Scenario Planning Matrix can be utilized to develop an agile response strategy. Including as many details as possible can help evaluate the likelihood of the success or failure of various strategic alternatives. The idea behind the funnel model is that the farther we look from today's viewpoint into the future, the higher is the number of probable developments.

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Visão geral

Em seu livro "Planejamento de Cenários: Um Guia de Campo para o Futuro", Woody Wade disse: "O problema com o futuro é que ele é diferente. Se você não consegue pensar de maneira diferente, o futuro sempre chegará como uma surpresa."

Para treinar a si mesmo a pensar de maneira diferente sobre o futuro, você pode usar o planejamento de cenários. O planejamento de cenários é uma ferramenta que considera histórias hipotéticas para mudar o pensamento, as ações e os processos das equipes para que estejam melhor preparadas para o amanhã. O planejamento de cenários ajuda os líderes a definir cenários de resultados e riscos potenciais, examinar respostas e gerenciar antecipadamente as possibilidades positivas e negativas.

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Questions and answers
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Scenario planning helps in identifying key growth factors and potential threats by allowing leaders to define scenarios of potential outcomes and risks. It encourages thinking differently about the future and considers hypothetical stories to change the actions and processes of teams. This way, teams are better equipped for tomorrow, being able to examine responses and manage in advance for both positive and negative possibilities.

Scenario planning can be applied in budgeting and forecasting by creating different financial scenarios based on various factors such as market trends, economic conditions, and business strategies. These scenarios can help in anticipating potential outcomes and preparing for them. For instance, a 'best case' and 'worst case' scenario can be created to plan for potential growth or downturns. This allows businesses to be better prepared for future uncertainties and to make informed decisions.

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Quando as empresas visualizam o quadro maior, levando em consideração riscos e oportunidades potenciais, elas se tornam mais proativas do que reativas aos eventos futuros. De fato, uma pesquisa com 77 grandes empresas conduzida por René Rohrbeck da Universidade de Aarhus e Jan Oliver Schwarz da EBS Business School da Alemanha, descobriu que os esforços formais de "previsão estratégica" agregam grande valor através de uma capacidade aprimorada de perceber mudanças; uma capacidade aprimorada de interpretar e responder à mudança; influência sobre outros atores e uma capacidade aprimorada para o aprendizado organizacional.

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Questions and answers
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Scenario planning enhances a company's capacity to perceive and respond to change by allowing it to visualize potential risks and opportunities. This proactive approach helps businesses to prepare for future events rather than reacting to them as they occur. It provides a strategic foresight that adds value through an enhanced capacity to perceive change, interpret and respond to change, influence other actors, and enhance organizational learning.

Scenario planning has several practical applications in various industries. It helps businesses visualize the bigger picture, taking into account potential risks and opportunities, making them more proactive rather than reactive to future events. It enhances the capacity to perceive change, interpret and respond to change, influence other actors, and enhance organizational learning. In specific industries, it can be used to forecast potential market trends, anticipate competitor actions, plan for potential regulatory changes, and prepare for possible economic shifts.

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Aqui estão algumas perguntas-chave a serem feitas ao trabalhar no seu planejamento de cenário:

  • Qual é o problema que estamos avaliando?
  • Até que ponto no futuro estamos olhando?
  • Quais os principais fatores externos que provavelmente impactarão nossos cenários prováveis?
  • Quais os principais fatores internos que provavelmente impactarão nossos cenários prováveis
  • Quais são as possíveis ameaças aos cenários?
  • Temos o talento e as habilidades, dados, tecnologia e equipamentos e outros recursos para construir e manter nossos planos de cenário?
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Questions and answers
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Scenario planning enhances business strategy by allowing businesses to anticipate potential future situations and prepare for them. It helps in identifying key growth factors and potential threats, thus enabling businesses to make informed decisions. Scenario planning also aids in resource allocation by identifying the talent, skills, data, technology, and equipment needed for different scenarios.

Common challenges in applying Scenario Planning include: uncertainty about the future, lack of data, difficulty in identifying key factors, and resistance to change within the organization. These can be overcome by: creating a culture of flexibility and adaptability, investing in data collection and analysis, involving a diverse group of stakeholders in the planning process, and providing training and support to those involved in implementing the plans.

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Estatísticas

Um estudo recente de uma empresa de planejamento estratégico, On Strategy, mostrou que:

  • 95% de uma força de trabalho típica não entende a estratégia de sua organização
  • 90% das organizações falham em executar suas estratégias com sucesso
  • 86% das equipes executivas passam menos de uma hora por mês discutindo estratégia
  • 60% das organizações não vinculam estratégia ao orçamento
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Estudos de caso

Royal Dutch Shell

As coisas realmente decolaram para uma empresa britânica-holandesa de petróleo e gás, Royal Dutch Shell, comumente conhecida como Shell, quando em 1965, o chefe de economia e planejamento para a divisão de exploração e produção da Shell, Jimmy Davidson, e o veterano da empresa, Ted Newland, lançaram a iniciativa "Estudos de Longo Prazo".

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The Long-Term Studies initiative in the oil and gas industry, as exemplified by Royal Dutch Shell, has several practical applications. It allows companies to plan for the long term, taking into account various scenarios that might affect their operations. This can include changes in the market, technological advancements, and shifts in regulatory environments. By doing so, companies can better prepare for potential threats and opportunities, allowing them to react confidently and maintain a competitive advantage. It also aids in budgeting and forecasting, helping companies allocate resources more effectively.

The key components of Shell's 'Long-Term Studies' initiative are not explicitly mentioned in the provided content. However, based on the general understanding of such initiatives in the oil and gas industry, they typically involve extensive research and analysis of market trends, economic factors, technological advancements, and environmental considerations. These studies aim to forecast the long-term future of the industry and the company's position within it, enabling strategic planning and decision-making.

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Newland lembra de ter sido colocado em uma cabine no 18º andar da sede da empresa em Londres e pedido para pensar sobre o futuro. "Sem indicações reais do que era esperado de mim", ele disse à "Harvard Business Review". No entanto, essa estranha nomeação deu origem ao experimento ainda em andamento de implementar o planejamento de cenários para prever riscos e oportunidades.

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A company that could benefit from scenario planning is Tesla. Scenario planning could help Tesla anticipate potential future scenarios in the electric vehicle and renewable energy markets. For instance, they could plan for scenarios such as changes in government policies, advancements in battery technology, or shifts in consumer preferences. By doing so, Tesla could prepare strategies to respond to these scenarios, helping them maintain their competitive advantage and react confidently to changes.

Scenario planning differs from other business forecasting methods in that it doesn't rely on single predictions. Instead, it explores a range of possible futures and how they might impact the business. This method allows businesses to prepare for multiple potential outcomes, rather than banking on one specific forecast. It's a more comprehensive and flexible approach, enabling businesses to adapt quickly to changing circumstances.

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Hoje, a Shell tem uma equipe inteira dedicada a Cenários com expertise em uma ampla gama de campos, incluindo economia, política, análise de energia, política climática, mudança sociocultural e inteligência competitiva. "O trabalho da equipe ajuda a explorar possíveis versões do futuro, identificando impulsionadores, incertezas, facilitadores e restrições, e descobrindo possíveis problemas e suas implicações", de acordo com o site da empresa.

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Common challenges in applying scenario planning at Shell could include the complexity of predicting future scenarios in a rapidly changing global environment, the difficulty of integrating scenario planning into strategic decision-making, and the challenge of communicating the results of scenario planning to stakeholders. These challenges can be overcome by investing in a dedicated team with expertise in various fields, as Shell has done, to explore possible versions of the future. This team can identify drivers, uncertainties, enablers, and constraints, and unearth potential issues and their implications. Furthermore, integrating scenario planning into strategic decision-making processes and effectively communicating the results to stakeholders can also help overcome these challenges.

Shell's scenario planning framework is unique in its comprehensive approach to future planning. It involves a dedicated team with expertise in various fields, exploring possible versions of the future by identifying drivers, uncertainties, enablers, and constraints. This approach helps unearth potential issues and their implications. In contrast, other business frameworks may focus more narrowly on specific aspects such as financial forecasting, strategic planning, or operational efficiency. However, without a specific business framework for comparison, a detailed comparison cannot be provided.

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A equipe de Cenários da Shell periodicamente lança cenários acessíveis ao público. Assim, por exemplo, em 2013, a Shell publicou novos cenários que exploravam duas possíveis maneiras de o século 21 se desdobrar, com implicações dramaticamente diferentes para a sociedade e o sistema energético mundial. "Um cenário vê o gás natural de queima mais limpa se tornando a fonte de energia mais importante globalmente na década de 2030 e ação precoce para limitar as emissões de dióxido de carbono."O outro vê a energia solar se tornando a principal fonte por volta de 2070, mas com ações mais lentas para enfrentar a ameaça das mudanças climáticas," afirma o site da Shell.

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Shell's scenario planning significantly impacts their schedules, budgets, and forecasts. By exploring different potential future scenarios, Shell can prepare for a variety of outcomes. This allows them to allocate resources, plan schedules, and set budgets that are flexible and can adapt to changing circumstances. For example, if a scenario suggests a shift towards cleaner energy sources, Shell can adjust their budget to invest more in renewable energy technologies. Similarly, schedules for projects and initiatives can be adjusted based on the timelines predicted in different scenarios. This proactive approach helps Shell to mitigate risks and seize opportunities, thereby gaining a competitive advantage.

The challenges in applying Shell's scenario planning could include the unpredictability of future events, the difficulty in accurately predicting the impact of various factors on the energy market, and the complexity of integrating scenario planning into decision-making processes. Overcoming these challenges may involve improving data collection and analysis methods, investing in research to better understand potential market influences, and fostering a corporate culture that values and utilizes strategic foresight.

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